📈 PROJECTIONS

Every engine projection for tonight's slate. Each cell shows the model number, a floor–ceiling range (15th–85th pctile) on count props, the sportsbook line, and the best price across books. The HR column shows model win % vs market-implied % with the edge in points. Click any column header to sort. Use the column chips at the top of each tab to hide columns you don't care about.

Methodology: Batter expected stats from our per-batter projection model. HR Verdict is the engine's curated PLAY/GOOD/LEAN/PASS tier. Pitcher K projection blends bottom-up (M0) and engine (M2) outputs; lean comes from edge vs sportsbook line. Game projections blend engine + game-sims. Postseason: in a postseason game (wild card through World Series) starters are pulled earlier and hitters produce less than their regular-season rates say, so the pitcher outs, strikeout and hits-allowed projections take ×0.87, and batter expected total bases ×0.88, RBI ×0.86, runs ×0.89, H+R+RBI ×0.89, doubles ×0.84, triples ×0.70 and strikeouts ×1.14. The factors were fitted on the 2010–2025 postseasons against the same players' own regular seasons and tested only on later seasons; no market input. Expected hits, singles, stolen bases, walks, earned runs and home runs are unchanged, and regular-season games are untouched. YRFI (market) is not a projection: it is the median posted price for Yes Run First Inning (Over 0.5 runs in the 1st) across the real-money sportsbooks pricing that game — exchanges and DFS pick'em excluded — with the no-vig consensus implied probability beneath it (each book's YRFI/NRFI pair de-vigged, then averaged). Games already under way show the frozen closing median. No edge is claimed against it. All values hypothetical / illustrative — not betting advice.