THE GRIDIRON KING NFL projections, props and honest accuracy reporting

538

props on the board

272

games scheduled

teams tracked

The board

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How to read this board

Line: For a yes/no market this is the market's definitional threshold, not a price.
xTD: Expected touchdowns — the model's Poisson rate. Not a probability. A value above 1 means more than one touchdown expected.
Price: The posted American odds.
Lean: ▲ YES appears only where the model's probability beats the market's implied probability and the pipeline classifies the row as playable. no lean means the model is at or below the market. research only means the model is above the market but the pipeline has not classified the row as a play. — means no market price was posted to compare against. We publish no validated edge here; the note beside “The board” states how many of today's rows are playable.

Player	Pos	Team	Opp	Market	Line	xTD	Price	Lean

Rankings, ADP and tiers for draft season.

Per-player projections for every market we price.

How the model has actually done, published in full.

NFL game-line projections, Super Bowl futures value and the anytime-TD model — plus a draft-ready fantasy suite.