Wk 1 · 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs — Sat, Aug 29
Sat, Aug 29 ·
Aviva Stadium, Dublin
· ESPN · Disney+ FINAL
Weather
No forecast yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
vs
12:00pET
TCU -7.5 · total 46.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential TCU by 6.2
What is at stake
A neutral-site game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. Aer Lingus College Football Classic.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
no home-field adjustment at a neutral site.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
North Carolina form
W 15-10at TCU
2026 season
TCU form
L 10-15vs UNC
2026 season
North Carolina this season
Straight up1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Against the spread1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Over / under0-1 · 0% (1 games)
TCU this season
Straight up0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Against the spread0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Over / under0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 0
These teams share no opponents on the 2026 schedule.
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 1–1 · North Carolina won the last one
2 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
14.5 points toward TCU
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2026-08-29 | North Carolina 15 — 10 TCU | neutral | North Carolina |
| 2025 | 2025-09-01 | TCU 48 — 14 North Carolina | at UNC | TCU |
North Carolina leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Gio Lopez QB #3 | 170/261, 1747 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT |
| Max Johnson QB #7 | 54/87, 432 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Demon June RB #0 | 84 CAR, 464 YDS, 2 TD |
| Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 71 CAR, 274 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Davion Gause RB #7 | 61 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 60 REC, 671 YDS, 6 TD |
| Kobe Paysour WR #8 | 35 REC, 438 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Demon June RB #0 | 17 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Javarius Green WR #4 | 13 REC, 150 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Khmori House DB #6 | 78 |
| Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 61 | |
| Will Hardy DB #31 | 53 | |
| Sacks | Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 10.5 |
| Tyler Thompson DL #3 | 7 | |
| Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 5 | |
| Interceptions | Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 1 |
| Kaleb Cost DB #2 | 1 | |
| Jaiden Patterson DB #18 | 1 |
TCU leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Josh Hoover QB #10 | 272/413, 3472 YDS, 29 TD, 13 INT |
| Ken Seals QB #9 | 4/6, 24 YDS, 1 INT | |
| Rushing | Jeremy Payne RB #26 | 97 CAR, 550 YDS, 4 TD |
| Kevorian Barnes RB #2 | 97 CAR, 443 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Trent Battle RB #6 | 62 CAR, 345 YDS, 6 TD | |
| Receiving | Eric McAlister WR #1 | 64 REC, 1121 YDS, 10 TD |
| Jordan Dwyer WR #7 | 54 REC, 730 YDS, 7 TD | |
| Joseph Manjack IV WR #14 | 41 REC, 551 YDS, 3 TD | |
| DJ Rogers TE #0 | 32 REC, 300 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Kaleb Elarms-Orr LB #3 | 119 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 89 | |
| Namdi Obiazor LB #4 | 81 | |
| Sacks | Kaleb Elarms-Orr LB #3 | 4 |
| Devean Deal EDGE #11 | 3.5 | |
| Kylin Jackson S #6 | 2.5 | |
| Interceptions | Bud Clark S #21 | 4 |
| Jamel Johnson S #2 | 4 | |
| Namdi Obiazor LB #4 | 2 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.