Wk 6 · 2026
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans — Sat, Oct 10
Sat, Oct 10 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 40 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
Big Ten · no games yet
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential ILL by 5.2
Big Ten · no games yet
What is at stake
A Big Ten game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Illinois form
No completed games on record.
Michigan St form
No completed games on record.
Illinois this season
No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Michigan St this season
No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 4
| Opponent | Illinois | Michigan St |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon Big Ten | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 12 · scheduled preview |
| Nebraska Big Ten | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 4 · scheduled preview |
| UCLA Big Ten | at Wk 11 · scheduled preview | at Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
| Northwestern Big Ten | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 7 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, the series is level at 4–4 · Illinois won the last one
8 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
5.6 points toward Michigan St
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-11-16 | Michigan St 16 — 38 Illinois | at ILL | Illinois |
| 2022 | 2022-11-05 | Michigan St 23 — 15 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2019 | 2019-11-09 | Illinois 37 — 34 Michigan St | at MSU | Illinois |
| 2016 | 2016-11-05 | Michigan St 27 — 31 Illinois | at ILL | Illinois |
| 2013 | 2013-10-26 | Michigan St 42 — 3 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2010 | 2010-10-16 | Illinois 6 — 26 Michigan St | at MSU | Michigan St |
| 2009 | 2009-10-10 | Michigan St 24 — 14 Illinois | at ILL | Michigan St |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | Illinois 23 — 20 Michigan St | at MSU | Illinois |
Illinois leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Luke Altmyer QB #9 | 226/332, 2811 YDS, 21 TD, 5 INT |
| Hank Beatty WR #80 | 2/2, 31 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Rushing | Ca'Lil Valentine RB #5 | 123 CAR, 549 YDS, 4 TD |
| Kaden Feagin TE #83 | 119 CAR, 499 YDS, 7 TD | |
| Aidan Laughery RB #21 | 62 CAR, 305 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Receiving | Hank Beatty WR #80 | 64 REC, 826 YDS, 3 TD |
| Collin Dixon WR #17 | 33 REC, 538 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Hudson Clement WR #13 | 33 REC, 406 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Justin Bowick WR #0 | 19 REC, 234 YDS, 4 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Matthew Bailey DB #7 | 76 |
| Miles Scott S #10 | 59 | |
| Dylan Rosiek LB #28 | 49 | |
| Sacks | Gabe Jacas EDGE #17 | 11 |
| Leon Lowery Jr. LB #9 | 2 | |
| Tomiwa Durojaiye DL #13 | 2 | |
| Interceptions | Miles Scott S #10 | 3 |
| Dylan Rosiek LB #28 | 1 | |
| Torrie Cox Jr. DB #5 | 1 |
Michigan St leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Chiles QB #0 | 128/203, 1392 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 111/173, 1267 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Makhi Frazier RB #25 | 116 CAR, 520 YDS, 2 TD |
| Elijah Tau-Tolliver RB #4 | 72 CAR, 428 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Brandon Tullis RB #7 | 69 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Receiving | Nick Marsh WR #11 | 59 REC, 662 YDS, 6 TD |
| Omari Kelly WR #1 | 47 REC, 626 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jack Velling TE #12 | 36 REC, 359 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 24 REC, 330 YDS, 3 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Jordan Hall LB #5 | 88 |
| Wayne Matthews III LB #10 | 73 | |
| Alex VanSumeren DT #91 | 52 | |
| Sacks | Quindarius Dunnigan DL #99 | 2.5 |
| Jordan Hall LB #5 | 2.5 | |
| Jalen Thompson DL #9 | 2.5 | |
| Interceptions | Armorion Smith S #7 | 1 |
| Wayne Matthews III LB #10 | 1 | |
| Aveon Grose S #30 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.