Wk 5 · 2026
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels — Sat, Oct 3
Sat, Oct 3 ·
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Weather
No forecast yet. This one is 33 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
FBS Indep. · no games yet
at
TBDET
ND -23.5 · total 55.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential ND by 21.8
ACC · 1-0
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race. Notre Dame is ranked #4 (AP Top 25 · 2026-08-17).
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Notre Dame form
No completed games on record.
North Carolina form
W 15-10at TCU
2026 season
Notre Dame this season
No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
North Carolina this season
Straight up1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Against the spread1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Over / under0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 2
| Opponent | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Miami ACC | vs Wk 10 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 9 · scheduled preview |
| Syracuse ACC | at Wk 13 · scheduled preview | vs Wk 8 · scheduled preview |
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
Since 2006, Notre Dame leads 6–1 · Notre Dame has won the last 5
7 meetings
in 2006–2026 · average margin
11.6 points toward Notre Dame
| Yr | Date | Result | Site | Won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022-09-24 | Notre Dame 45 — 32 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2021 | 2021-10-30 | North Carolina 34 — 44 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
| 2020 | 2020-11-27 | Notre Dame 31 — 17 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2017 | 2017-10-07 | Notre Dame 33 — 10 North Carolina | at UNC | Notre Dame |
| 2014 | 2014-10-11 | North Carolina 43 — 50 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
| 2008 | 2008-10-11 | Notre Dame 24 — 29 North Carolina | at UNC | North Carolina |
| 2006 | 2006-11-04 | North Carolina 26 — 45 Notre Dame | at ND | Notre Dame |
Notre Dame leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | CJ Carr QB #13 | 195/293, 2741 YDS, 24 TD, 6 INT |
| Kenny Minchey QB #3 | 20/26, 196 YDS | |
| Rushing | Jeremiyah Love RB #4 | 199 CAR, 1372 YDS, 18 TD |
| Jadarian Price RB #24 | 113 CAR, 674 YDS, 11 TD | |
| Aneyas Williams RB #22 | 24 CAR, 224 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Faison WR #6 | 49 REC, 640 YDS, 4 TD |
| Malachi Fields WR #0 | 36 REC, 630 YDS, 5 TD | |
| Eli Raridon TE #9 | 32 REC, 482 YDS | |
| Will Pauling WR #2 | 26 REC, 381 YDS, 6 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Drayk Bowen LB #34 | 67 |
| Adon Shuler S #8 | 53 | |
| Jaiden Ausberry LB #4 | 51 | |
| Sacks | Boubacar Traore DL #5 | 7.5 |
| Drayk Bowen LB #34 | 3.5 | |
| Josh Burnham DL #8 | 3 | |
| Interceptions | Leonard Moore CB #15 | 5 |
| Brauntae Johnson S #9 | 4 | |
| Luke Talich S #28 | 3 |
North Carolina leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Gio Lopez QB #3 | 170/261, 1747 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT |
| Max Johnson QB #7 | 54/87, 432 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Demon June RB #0 | 84 CAR, 464 YDS, 2 TD |
| Benjamin Hall RB #7 | 71 CAR, 274 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Davion Gause RB #7 | 61 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Receiving | Jordan Shipp WR #1 | 60 REC, 671 YDS, 6 TD |
| Kobe Paysour WR #8 | 35 REC, 438 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Demon June RB #0 | 17 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD | |
| Javarius Green WR #4 | 13 REC, 150 YDS |
Defense
| Tackles | Khmori House DB #6 | 78 |
| Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 61 | |
| Will Hardy DB #31 | 53 | |
| Sacks | Melkart Abou Jaoude DL #9 | 10.5 |
| Tyler Thompson DL #3 | 7 | |
| Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 5 | |
| Interceptions | Andrew Simpson LB #2 | 1 |
| Kaleb Cost DB #2 | 1 | |
| Jaiden Patterson DB #18 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.