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Wk 1 · 2026

SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles — Mon, Sep 7

Mon, Sep 7 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL · ESPN

Weather at kickoff

83°F light drizzle
50% chance of precipitation · wind 7 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
ACC · no games yet
at
7:30pET
SMU -3 · total 53.5 DraftKings opened +2.5 · 0.5 toward SMU
Ratings differential SMU by 0.2

What is at stake

A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. SMU is ranked #19 (AP Top 25 · 2026-08-17).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

SMU: +8.1#25
Efficiency margin
Florida St: +5.5#34
SMU: 30.4
Offense (pts/100)
Florida St: 29.3
SMU: 22.3
Defense (pts/100)
Florida St: 23.8
SMU: 65.5
Pace (plays/g)
Florida St: 66.0
SMU: no data
Yards / play
Florida St: 6.35
SMU: no data
Yards / play allowed
Florida St: 4.83
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

SMU: no data
Points / game
Florida St: 34.0
SMU: no data
Points allowed
Florida St: 17.0
SMU: no data
Yards / game
Florida St: 419
SMU: no data
Yards allowed
Florida St: no data
SMU: no data
Pass yds allowed
Florida St: no data
SMU: no data
Rush yds allowed
Florida St: no data
SMU: no data
Turnovers / game
Florida St: 1.00
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

SMU form

No completed games on record.

Florida St form

W 34-17vs NMSU
2026 season

SMU this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.

Florida St this season

Straight up1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Against the spread0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Over / under0-1 · 0% (1 games)
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 3

OpponentSMUFlorida St
Louisville
ACC
at Wk 3 · scheduled previewat Wk 6 · scheduled preview
Boston College
ACC
vs Wk 5 · scheduled previewat Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Virginia
ACC
vs Wk 7 · scheduled previewvs Wk 5 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, SMU leads 1–0 · SMU won the last one
1 meeting in 2006–2026 · average margin 26.0 points toward SMU
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20242024-09-28Florida St 1642 SMUat SMUSMU

SMU leaders 2025 regular season

PassingKevin Jennings QB #7279/422, 3363 YDS, 26 TD, 10 INT
Charlie Fiser QB #144/4, 30 YDS
RushingTJ Harden RB #27161 CAR, 747 YDS, 7 TD
Chris Johnson Jr. RB #1662 CAR, 463 YDS, 4 TD
Derrick McFall WR #032 CAR, 183 YDS, 4 TD
ReceivingJordan Hudson WR #256 REC, 749 YDS, 6 TD
Romello Brinson WR #343 REC, 638 YDS, 3 TD
Yamir Knight WR #847 REC, 533 YDS, 5 TD
Matthew Hibner TE #8829 REC, 351 YDS, 4 TD
Defense
TacklesAhmaad Moses S #391
Isaiah Nwokobia S #1280
Brandon Booker LB #2862
SacksIsaiah Smith LB #18.5
Terry Webb DT #45.5
Cameron Robertson DE #95
InterceptionsAhmaad Moses S #35
Isaiah Nwokobia S #122
Jaelyn Davis-Robinson CB #132

Florida St leaders 2025 regular season

PassingTommy Castellanos QB #1180/309, 2760 YDS, 15 TD, 9 INT
Kevin Sperry QB #912/17, 194 YDS, 2 TD
RushingTommy Castellanos QB #1137 CAR, 557 YDS, 9 TD
Gavin Sawchuk RB #27109 CAR, 486 YDS, 8 TD
Ousmane Kromah RB #3272 CAR, 408 YDS
ReceivingDuce Robinson WR #056 REC, 1081 YDS, 6 TD
Micahi Danzy WR #827 REC, 571 YDS, 3 TD
Lawayne McCoy WR #727 REC, 396 YDS, 3 TD
Randy Pittman TE #523 REC, 208 YDS, 2 TD
Defense
TacklesEarl Little Jr. S #176
Ashlynd Barker DB #748
Darrell Jackson Jr. DT #644
SacksMandrell Desir DL #36.5
Stefon Thompson LB #73.5
Ashlynd Barker DB #73.5
InterceptionsEarl Little Jr. S #14
Jerry Wilson DB #193
Edwin Joseph S #143
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.