Wk 1 · 2026
Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans — Fri, Sep 4
Fri, Sep 4 ·
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
· FS1
Weather at kickoff
74°F mostly clear
10% chance of precipitation · wind 12 mph
Forecast from Open-Meteo
MAC · no games yet
at
8:00pET
MSU -10 · total 49.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential TOL by 7.0
Big Ten · no games yet
What is at stake
A non-conference game. It moves both overall records but neither conference race.
What the ratings imply
The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers:
The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus
2.4 points of home field.
It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site
compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026
games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have
changed.
Efficiency · 2026 ratings
Efficiency margin
Offense (pts/100)
Defense (pts/100)
Pace (plays/g)
Yards / play
Yards / play allowed
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College
King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so
the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a
longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the
good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so
neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.
Team stats · 2026 per game
Points / game
Points allowed
Yards / game
Yards allowed
Pass yds allowed
Rush yds allowed
Turnovers / game
From completed 2026 box scores;
defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.
Toledo form
No completed games on record.
Michigan St form
No completed games on record.
Toledo this season
No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Michigan St this season
No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.
Common opponents · 1
Open these two in the
comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.
Series history · 2006–2026
These teams have not met in the 2006–2026 window.
Toledo leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Tucker Gleason QB #4 | 207/320, 2515 YDS, 21 TD, 9 INT |
| Kalieb Osborne QB #7 | 15/24, 260 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Rushing | Chip Trayanum RB #1 | 166 CAR, 950 YDS, 11 TD |
| Kenji Christian RB #3 | 99 CAR, 501 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Kalieb Osborne QB #7 | 33 CAR, 205 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Receiving | Junior Vandeross III WR #2 | 75 REC, 947 YDS, 11 TD |
| Trayvon Rudolph WR #9 | 38 REC, 423 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jacob Petersen TE #89 | 22 REC, 275 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Chip Trayanum RB #1 | 19 REC, 207 YDS, 2 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | K'Von Sherman LB #0 | 85 |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S #7 | 73 | |
| Chris D'Appolonia LB #6 | 68 | |
| Sacks | Martez Poynter DT #8 | 5.5 |
| Malachi Davis DL #11 | 5.5 | |
| K'Von Sherman LB #0 | 4.5 | |
| Interceptions | Braden Awls S #2 | 5 |
| Nasir Bowers CB #0 | 2 | |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S #7 | 2 |
Michigan St leaders 2025 regular season
| Passing | Aidan Chiles QB #0 | 128/203, 1392 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| Alessio Milivojevic QB #11 | 111/173, 1267 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT | |
| Rushing | Makhi Frazier RB #25 | 116 CAR, 520 YDS, 2 TD |
| Elijah Tau-Tolliver RB #4 | 72 CAR, 428 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Brandon Tullis RB #7 | 69 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Receiving | Nick Marsh WR #11 | 59 REC, 662 YDS, 6 TD |
| Omari Kelly WR #1 | 47 REC, 626 YDS, 2 TD | |
| Jack Velling TE #12 | 36 REC, 359 YDS, 3 TD | |
| Chrishon McCray WR #13 | 24 REC, 330 YDS, 3 TD |
Defense
| Tackles | Jordan Hall LB #5 | 88 |
| Wayne Matthews III LB #10 | 73 | |
| Alex VanSumeren DT #91 | 52 | |
| Sacks | Quindarius Dunnigan DL #99 | 2.5 |
| Jordan Hall LB #5 | 2.5 | |
| Jalen Thompson DL #9 | 2.5 | |
| Interceptions | Armorion Smith S #7 | 1 |
| Wayne Matthews III LB #10 | 1 | |
| Aveon Grose S #30 | 1 |
These are regular-season totals for
the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year,
taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's
roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still
appears against the year he earned it; the
roster
pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is.
A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster
pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.