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Wk 5 · 2026

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sat, Oct 3

Sat, Oct 3 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 33 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
#13 Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC · no games yet
at
TBDET
no line posted yet
Ratings differential ALA by 9.3
Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC · no games yet

What is at stake

A SEC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race. EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start. Alabama is ranked #13 (AP Top 25 · 2026-08-17).

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

Alabama: +10.9#16
Efficiency margin
Mississippi St: -0.8#72
Alabama: 31.0
Offense (pts/100)
Mississippi St: 28.7
Alabama: 20.1
Defense (pts/100)
Mississippi St: 29.5
Alabama: 65.5
Pace (plays/g)
Mississippi St: 65.5
Alabama: no data
Yards / play
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Yards / play allowed
Mississippi St: no data
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

Alabama: no data
Points / game
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Points allowed
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Yards / game
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Yards allowed
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Pass yds allowed
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Rush yds allowed
Mississippi St: no data
Alabama: no data
Turnovers / game
Mississippi St: no data
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

Alabama form

No completed games on record.

Mississippi St form

No completed games on record.

Alabama this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.

Mississippi St this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

OpponentAlabamaMississippi St
South Carolina
SEC
vs Wk 4 · scheduled previewat Wk 3 · scheduled preview
LSU
SEC
at Wk 10 · scheduled previewat Wk 7 · scheduled preview
Vanderbilt
SEC
at Wk 11 · scheduled previewvs Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Auburn
SEC
vs Wk 13 · scheduled previewvs Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, Alabama leads 16–2 · Alabama has won the last 16
18 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 21.6 points toward Alabama
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20232023-09-30Alabama 40 — 17 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20222022-10-22Mississippi St 6 — 30 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20212021-10-16Alabama 49 — 9 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20202020-10-31Mississippi St 0 — 41 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20192019-11-16Alabama 38 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20182018-11-10Mississippi St 0 — 24 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20172017-11-11Alabama 31 — 24 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20162016-11-12Mississippi St 3 — 51 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20152015-11-14Alabama 31 — 6 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20142014-11-15Mississippi St 20 — 25 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20132013-11-16Alabama 20 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20122012-10-27Mississippi St 7 — 38 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20112011-11-12Alabama 24 — 7 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20102010-11-13Mississippi St 10 — 30 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20092009-11-14Alabama 31 — 3 Mississippi Stat MSSTAlabama
20082008-11-15Mississippi St 7 — 32 Alabamaat ALAAlabama
20072007-11-10Alabama 12 — 17 Mississippi Stat MSSTMississippi St
20062006-11-04Mississippi St 24 — 16 Alabamaat ALAMississippi St

Alabama leaders 2025 regular season

PassingTy Simpson QB #15275/428, 3268 YDS, 26 TD, 5 INT
Keelon Russell QB #1211/15, 143 YDS, 2 TD
RushingJam Miller RB #26123 CAR, 493 YDS, 3 TD
Daniel Hill RB #461 CAR, 228 YDS, 5 TD
Kevin Riley RB #656 CAR, 222 YDS, 2 TD
ReceivingGermie Bernard WR #557 REC, 762 YDS, 7 TD
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR #142 REC, 631 YDS, 4 TD
Isaiah Horton WR #735 REC, 430 YDS, 8 TD
Lotzeir Brooks WR #327 REC, 362 YDS
Defense
TacklesJustin Jefferson LB #1067
Deontae Lawson LB #066
Bray Hubbard DB #1861
SacksYhonzae Pierre LB #06
LT Overton EDGE #224
James Smith DT #32.5
InterceptionsBray Hubbard DB #184
Dijon Lee Jr. DB #52
DaShawn Jones CB #71
full roster and per-player history

Mississippi St leaders 2025 regular season

PassingBlake Shapen QB #2195/303, 2433 YDS, 15 TD, 8 INT
Kamario Taylor QB #130/55, 388 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
RushingFluff Bothwell RB #24128 CAR, 639 YDS, 6 TD
Davon Booth RB #6136 CAR, 553 YDS, 7 TD
Kamario Taylor QB #164 CAR, 395 YDS, 7 TD
ReceivingBrenen Thompson WR #053 REC, 948 YDS, 6 TD
Anthony Evans III WR #363 REC, 751 YDS, 4 TD
Seydou Traore TE #834 REC, 358 YDS, 5 TD
Ayden Williams WR #1119 REC, 222 YDS
Defense
TacklesJahron Manning S #1385
Nic Mitchell LB #4072
Brylan Lanier S #365
SacksNic Mitchell LB #402.5
Will Whitson DL #432
Kalvin Dinkins DL #352
InterceptionsBrylan Lanier S #33
Kelley Jones CB #12
Hunter Washington S #211
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.