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Wk 7 · 2026

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils — Sat, Oct 17

Sat, Oct 17 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC

Weather

No forecast yet. This one is 47 days away and has no kickoff time yet. Forecasts reach about 16 days ahead, so this fills in nearer the game. A seasonal average printed here would look exactly like a forecast, which is why there is not one.
North Carolina Tar Heels
ACC · 1-0
at
TBDET
DUKE -4.5 · total 54.5 DraftKings
Ratings differential DUKE by 10.7
Duke Blue Devils
ACC · no games yet

What is at stake

Victory Bell. Basketball's most famous rivalry has a football trophy too — an old railroad bell on a wheeled cart that the winning students push off the field. They play for the Victory Bell. A ACC game — it counts in the standings that decide that league's championship game. Run the race.

What the ratings imply

The differential above is arithmetic on two published numbers: The CFB King’s 2026 final efficiency ratings, plus 2.4 points of home field. It is not a projection, a value, an edge or a lean, and nothing on this site compares it with the betting line to tell you one is better. Until 2026 games are played it is last season’s measurement of two teams that have changed.

Efficiency · 2026 ratings

North Carolina: -4.6#93
Efficiency margin
Duke: +3.7#42
North Carolina: 18.8
Offense (pts/100)
Duke: 32.9
North Carolina: 23.4
Defense (pts/100)
Duke: 29.3
North Carolina: -1343.0
Pace (plays/g)
Duke: 65.5
North Carolina: 5.65
Yards / play
Duke: no data
North Carolina: 3.96
Yards / play allowed
Duke: no data
Opponent-adjusted ratings from The College King's 2026 final numbers. Bars share a scale within each row, so the two lengths are comparable; the brighter side is the better of the two, and a longer bar is the better number — including the rows where a lower figure is the good one. Pace is the exception: it is how fast a team plays, not how well, so neither side is lit and a longer bar there means only more plays.

Team stats · 2026 per game

North Carolina: 15.0
Points / game
Duke: no data
North Carolina: 10.0
Points allowed
Duke: no data
North Carolina: 322
Yards / game
Duke: no data
North Carolina: no data
Yards allowed
Duke: no data
North Carolina: no data
Pass yds allowed
Duke: no data
North Carolina: no data
Rush yds allowed
Duke: no data
North Carolina: 2.00
Turnovers / game
Duke: no data
From completed 2026 box scores; defensive yardage covers the regular season and conference championships.

North Carolina form

W 15-10at TCU
2026 season

Duke form

No completed games on record.

North Carolina this season

Straight up1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Against the spread1-0 · 100% (1 games)
Over / under0-1 · 0% (1 games)

Duke this season

No graded games yet this season. Lines are captured before kickoff and graded when a game goes final, so these records start at Week 1.
Lines are captured from ESPN's board before kickoff and locked at kickoff, so an in-play price cannot overwrite the number a game is graded against.

Common opponents · 4

OpponentNorth CarolinaDuke
Clemson
ACC
at Wk 3 · scheduled previewvs Wk 12 · scheduled preview
Miami
ACC
vs Wk 9 · scheduled previewat Wk 11 · scheduled preview
Virginia
ACC
at Wk 12 · scheduled previewat Wk 8 · scheduled preview
NC State
ACC
vs Wk 13 · scheduled previewat Wk 10 · scheduled preview
Open these two in the comparison tool for every shared and unshared opponent.

Series history · 2006–2026

Since 2006, North Carolina leads 13–7 · Duke has won the last 2
20 meetings in 2006–2026 · average margin 7.5 points toward North Carolina
Yr DateResultSiteWon
20252025-11-22Duke 32 — 25 North Carolinaat UNCDuke
20242024-09-28North Carolina 20 — 21 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20232023-11-11Duke 45 — 47 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20222022-10-15North Carolina 38 — 35 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina
20212021-10-02Duke 7 — 38 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20202020-11-07North Carolina 56 — 24 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina
20192019-10-26Duke 17 — 20 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20182018-11-10North Carolina 35 — 42 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20172017-09-23Duke 27 — 17 North Carolinaat UNCDuke
20162016-11-10North Carolina 27 — 28 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20152015-11-07Duke 31 — 66 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20142014-11-20North Carolina 45 — 20 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina
20132013-11-30Duke 27 — 25 North Carolinaat UNCDuke
20122012-10-20North Carolina 30 — 33 Dukeat DUKEDuke
20112011-11-26Duke 21 — 37 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20102010-11-27North Carolina 24 — 19 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina
20092009-11-07Duke 6 — 19 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20082008-11-29North Carolina 28 — 20 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina
20072007-11-24Duke 14 — 20 North Carolinaat UNCNorth Carolina
20062006-11-25North Carolina 45 — 44 Dukeat DUKENorth Carolina

North Carolina leaders 2025 regular season

PassingGio Lopez QB #3170/261, 1747 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Max Johnson QB #754/87, 432 YDS, 2 TD
RushingDemon June RB #084 CAR, 464 YDS, 2 TD
Benjamin Hall RB #771 CAR, 274 YDS, 2 TD
Davion Gause RB #761 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD
ReceivingJordan Shipp WR #160 REC, 671 YDS, 6 TD
Kobe Paysour WR #835 REC, 438 YDS, 1 TD
Demon June RB #017 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD
Javarius Green WR #413 REC, 150 YDS
Defense
TacklesKhmori House DB #678
Andrew Simpson LB #261
Will Hardy DB #3153
SacksMelkart Abou Jaoude DL #910.5
Tyler Thompson DL #37
Andrew Simpson LB #25
InterceptionsAndrew Simpson LB #21
Kaleb Cost DB #21
Jaiden Patterson DB #181
full roster and per-player history

Duke leaders 2025 regular season

PassingDarian Mensah QB #10305/449, 3646 YDS, 30 TD, 5 INT
Henry Belin IV QB #22/5, 22 YDS
RushingNate Sheppard RB #20178 CAR, 962 YDS, 10 TD
Anderson Castle RB #4110 CAR, 470 YDS, 11 TD
Jaquez Moore RB #939 CAR, 192 YDS, 1 TD
ReceivingCooper Barkate WR #1868 REC, 1069 YDS, 6 TD
Que'Sean Brown WR #354 REC, 668 YDS, 3 TD
Sahmir Hagans WR #237 REC, 463 YDS, 6 TD
Jeremiah Hasley TE #8534 REC, 404 YDS, 5 TD
Defense
TacklesCaleb Weaver S #382
Luke Mergott LB #3480
DaShawn Stone S #877
SacksVincent Anthony Jr. DE #77.5
Josiah Green DT #43.5
Aaron Hall DT #992.5
InterceptionsChandler Rivers CB #02
Moussa Kane CB #222
Tre Freeman LB #122
full roster and per-player history
These are regular-season totals for the season named on each card — the players who led that team that year, taken from ESPN's team leaders. That list is keyed to the season, not to today's roster, so a leader who has since transferred or run out of eligibility still appears against the year he earned it; the roster pages and the depth chart on each team page are where the current squad is. A team switches to this season's numbers once it has played a game. The roster pages count bowl games too, so a player's two lines can differ by a game.